Blog / On the Decline of our Political Environment

Posted by Matthew Roberts on February 29, 2012

CBC This week in politics (Image via CBC.ca - Image Gallery - This week in Canadian politics)

Note: I am not associated with the Liberal Party of Canada, the signs they are holding just express how I feel.

TL/DR: Assuming the accusations are true, did vote suppression win the Tories the election? Nope. Continue reading if you are interested in seeing how I came up with this.

It’s time to stop being nonpartisan. Looking at the political news recently I see a lot of stuff happening which I would have never expected to hear about Canada. Seriously, what the hell is going on in this country? I hope the RCMP and Elections Canada get to the bottom of it, and the people responsible are appropriately punished for breaking the law.

Watching a CTV Atlantic interview last week, the question was put forward to a political analyst: if enough of the close political ridings were affected (where the Tories won by close margins) and it was discovered through the investigation that vote suppression techniques were used to discourage enough Liberal & NDP voters that the results of the elections were invalid, would Elections Canada nullify the previous results and call by-elections?

The political analyst said no, that the Tories did get a majority so even if a few ridings were affected, it probably wouldn’t have had a large effect on the house composition. So let’s do a little analysis:

  • Conservatives: 165 seats
  • NDP: 101 seats
  • Liberal: 35 seats

##Potential seats affected:

*Riding Incumbent (runner up # votes)*

But let’s throw out the results where the complaining party won, or the victory margin was > 1000* people. This isn’t because these ridings aren’t important, any election fraud should be taken seriously, but I just want to see if vote suppression bought the election.

*Not much information has been released on the number of calls made in each riding, so I am going to say anything beyond 1000 people is a clear victory, and the phone tampering would not have affected one way or the other. This might change if more specific numbers are released, and I will update my analysis.

###Liberals:

  • Cambridge (Ont.) Conservative (NDP by 14,000 votes, Liberal by 21,000)
  • Egmont (P.E.I.) Conservative (Liberal by 5000 votes)
  • Eglinton-Lawrence (Ont.) Conservative (Liberal by 4000 votes)
  • Etobicoke Centre (Ont.) Conservative (Liberal by 26 votes)
  • Guelph (Ont.) Liberal (Tory by 6000 votes)
  • Hamilton East-Stoney Creek (Ont.) NDP (Tory by 4000 votes, Liberal by 16,000)
  • Haldimand-Norfolk (Ont.) Conservative (Liberal by 13,000)
  • Kitchener-Conestoga (Ont.) Conservative (NDP by 17,000, Liberal by 18,000)
  • Kitchener-Waterloo (Ont.) Conservative (Liberal by 2000)
  • Kingston and the Islands (Ont.) Liberal (Tory by 1000)
  • Lac-Saint-Louis (Que.) Liberal (NDP by 2000, Tory by 3000)
  • London North Centre (Ont.) Conservative (Liberal by 2000)
  • London West (Ont.) Conservative (Liberal by 11,000)
  • Mississauga East-Cooksville (Ont.) Conservative (Liberal by 676)
  • Mount Royal (Que.) Liberal (Tory by 2000)
  • Niagara Falls (Ont.) Conservative (NDP by 16,000, Liberal by 18,000)
  • Nipissing-Timiskaming (Ont.) Conservative (Liberal by 18)
  • Oakville (Ont.) Conservative (Liberal by 13,000)
  • Ottawa-Orléans (Ont.) Conservative (Liberal by 4000)
  • Ottawa West-Nepean (Ont.) Conservative (Liberal by 7000)
  • Parkdale-High Park (Ont.) (also on the NDP list) NDP (Liberal by 7000, Tory by 17,000)
  • Perth-Wellington (Ont.) Conservative (NDP by 15,000, Liberal by 16,000)
  • Pierrefonds-Dollard (Que.) NDP (Liberal by 2000, Tory by 3000)
  • Saint Boniface (Man.) Conservative (Liberal by 8000)
  • Simcoe-Grey (Ont.) Conservative (NDP by 20,000, Liberal by 23,000)
  • St. Catharines (Ont.) Conservative (NDP by 13,000, Liberal by 15,000)
  • St. Paul’s (Ont.) Liberal (Tory by 4,000)
  • Sudbury (Ont.) (also on the NDP list) NDP (Tory by 10,000, Liberal by 14,000)
  • Sydney-Victoria (N.S.) Liberal (Tory by 765 votes)
  • Vancouver South (B.C.) Conservative (Liberal by 4000)
  • Wascana (Sask.) Liberal (Tory by 1532)
  • Wellington-Halton Hills (Ont.) Conservative (Liberal by 26,000)
  • Willowdale (Ont.) Conservative (Liberal by 961)
  • Winnipeg South Centre (Man.) Conservative (Liberal by 722)

###NDP:

  • Davenport (Ont.) NDP (Liberal by 10,000)
  • Edmonton-Centre (Alta.) Conservative (NDP by 11,000)
  • Edmonton East (Alta.) Independant/Tory (NDP by 7,000)
  • Elmwood-Transcona (Man.) Conservative (NDP by 300)
  • Essex (Ont.) Conservative (NDP by 7000)
  • Ottawa Centre (Ont.) NDP (Conservative by 19,000)
  • Parkdale-High Park (Ont.) (also on Liberal list) NDP (Liberal by 7000, Tory by 17,000)
  • South Shore-St. Margaret’s (N.S.) Conservative (NDP by 3000)
  • Sudbury (Ont.) (also on Liberal list) NDP (Tory by 10,000, Liberal by 14,000)
  • Thunder Bay-Superior North (Ont.) NDP (Tory by 17,000)
  • Windsor-Tecumseh (Ont.) NDP (Tory by 7000)
  • Winnipeg South (Man.) Conservative (Liberal by 8000, NDP by 17,000)

###Conservative

  • Peterborough (Ont.) Conservative (NDP by 15,000)

###Green Party

  • Saanich-Gulf Islands (B.C.) Green (Conservative by 9000)

##The Final Cut:

###Liberals:

  • Etobicoke Centre (Ont.) Conservative (Liberal by 26 votes)
  • Mississauga East-Cooksville (Ont.) Conservative (Liberal by 676)
  • Nipissing-Timiskaming (Ont.) Conservative (Liberal by 18)
  • Willowdale (Ont.) Conservative (Liberal by 961)
  • Winnipeg South Centre (Man.) Conservative (Liberal by 722)

###NDP:

  • Elmwood-Transcona (Man.) Conservative (NDP by 300)

Okay, what would this do to the house?

  • Conservatives: 165 seats - 6 = 159 seats
  • NDP: 101 seats + 1 = 102 seats
  • Liberal: 35 seats + 5 = 40 seats

##Results:

  • The Conservatives still have a majority government (>154) but the margin is closer.
  • The NDP are still the official opposition.
  • The Liberals have 40 seats.

What did it change? Not much.

However, if this is true, I can imagine that the Tories being convicted of election fraud would change the minds of lots of people across Canada, and if you performed an election again, the Tories would loose even more seats as a result.

##Sources: * http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/02/28/pol-robocalls-guelph-pierre-poutine.html * http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/02/28/pol-cotler-marketing-firm-watchdog.html * http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/02/27/pol-strange-election-calls-list.html * http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/02/28/pol-election-calls-tuesday.html * http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/02/27/pol-robocalls-house-back.html * http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/02/29/pol-robocalls-wed-riding-wrap.html * http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/harper-dismisses-robo-call-scandal-as-smear-campaign-by-sore-losers/article2354253/ * http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/fraudulent-calls-a-sophisticated-attempt-to-disrupt-an-election/article2352420/ * http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/former-tory-staffer-urges-guilty-party-to-take-blame-in-robo-call-controversy/article2353345/ * http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/pierre-poutine-used-prepaid-cellphone-to-dupe-voters/article2353497/ * http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tory-robo-call-scandal-widens-as-complaints-flood-from-nearly-30-ridings/article2350944/ * http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/john-ibbitson/in-the-robo-call-affair-time-and-the-law-favour-the-tories/article2353287/ * http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/02/29/well-have-to-call-gomery-opposition-turns-up-heat-on-harper-as-robocalls-scandal-intensifies/ * http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/02/29/young-tory-staffer-who-resigned-amid-robocalls-scandal-denies-involvement/ * http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1138388—tim-harper-allegations-of-fraud-sleaze-a-turnoff-to-voters * http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1138013—robo-calls-listen-to-this-fraudulent-elections-canada-message * http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1137730—marketing-strategist-stewart-braddick-plays-role-in-conservative-party-s-electoral-success * http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1137755—harassing-and-misleading-phone-calls-in-2011-federal-election-reported-nationwide-liberals-and-ndp-say * http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1137273—conservative-scripts-misdirected-voters-in-2011-election-say-call-centre-staff * http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/inside-politics-blog/2012/02/robocalls-watch-conservative-party-linked-to-calls-directing-voters-to-different-polling-stations.html * http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Canadian_federal_electoral_districts